Will Bitcoin Head to Winter or Boom? Answers from technical analysts

In the past two months, with the increasingly hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the impact of the escalating situation in Russia and Ukraine on the global asset market, Bitcoin continued to hover at a low level, once falling below $33,000 and reaching a maximum of nearly $46,000.

The sideways adjustment of Bitcoin, coupled with the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia, has triggered a debate in the market on the long-term development of cryptocurrencies: Will cryptocurrencies become a "safe haven" to avoid government intervention? Or just another risky asset class? Or will it become a tool that urgently needs stricter regulation and can circumvent sanctions?

For technical analysts, however, these discussions are not important, and key technical levels are the focus of a Bitcoin bull recovery or another bear market.

Bull Market Expectations

Using trend-following indicators, Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton believes Bitcoin will face resistance in the $50,000-$51,000 range, with near $55,000 as its second resistance level.

Ron William, founder of RW Market Advisory, said that in terms of upside, Bitcoin's key technical breakout range is still between $44,550-46,000.

Christopher Grafton, managing director of Vectisma Ltd., said that if Bitcoin can achieve a sustainable breakout above the key resistance level of $45,000, it will open up room for the next $54,000.

Bear Market Expectations

The 50-day moving average and recent lows around $33,000 and $34,500 are levels to watch, while $29,000 is the lowest level for a downtrend, said Jonathan Cheesman, head of over-the-counter and institutional sales at crypto exchange FTX.

William of RW Advisory sees minimum support at $20,000. He points out that this is both an important psychological dimension and the goal of a long-term regression analysis. It is understood that the price of Bitcoin has not reached such low levels since December 2020.