"Tesla Killer" can't hold it anymore? The stock price fell sharply, and the performance was upset! The industry fights fiercely

Rivian, an internet celebrity electric car stock known as the "Tesla killer," is facing a huge test.

　　After raising $13.7 billion in IPO financing last month, Rivian's stock price has skyrocketed, but now the first financial report since its listing has "planted." In the third quarter of 2021, Rivian recorded revenue of US$1 million for the first time, but at the same time the net loss was as high as US$1.233 billion, which was much higher than the US$288 million in the same period last year. Judging from the performance of the first three quarters of this year, Rivian's cumulative net loss was as high as US$2.227 billion, compared with a loss of US$665 million in the same period last year.

　　Jiasheng Group senior analyst Joshua Warner told the 21st Century Business Herald that the electric vehicle market has huge growth potential and is still a long way from maturity, but this does not mean that every company will be a winner. The player needs to keep his eyes open to make sure he is betting correctly.

　　Rivian encounters "real combat" test

　　As the global electric vehicle market is booming, many investors who regretted missing out on Tesla previously regarded Rivian as the "second Tesla."

　　It should be noted that Rivian raised US$13.7 billion in the November IPO, making it the largest IPO of US stocks since 2014, and it was a blessing for a while. On the first day of listing on November 10, Rivian's stock price rose by more than 50% during the intraday session, and rose nearly 30% at the close. Rivian's stock price has risen by more than 100% in less than a week after its listing, and its total market value once reached 146.7 billion US dollars, surpassing Volkswagen in one fell swoop .

　　Although Rivian has huge room for future development, such a crazy stock price is obviously unreasonable. Then Rivian's stock price began to decline all the way, and the financial report announced on the 16th gave another blow.

　　Rivian said in the financial report that due to supply chain constraints, the previously set production target for 2021 may not be reached, and that it is "a few hundred cars short of the target of producing 1,200 vehicles by the end of the year." Rivian launched its first model in September this year: R1T electric pickup, and this month began delivery of another model: R1S SUV.

　　Specifically, as of September 30, 2021, Rivian has produced 12 R1T electric pickup trucks and delivered 11 vehicles. As of December 15, 2021, Rivian has produced 652 R1 series electric vehicles and delivered 386.

　　After the announcement of the three quarterly report , Rivian's stock price plummeted by more than 10% on the 17th, closing at 97.7 US dollars, a record closing low. Compared to record highs, the market value of Rivian has fallen by nearly $60 billion, which is close to "halving." On December 21, Rivian fell nearly 8% again.

It is worth mentioning that Rivian currently has only one plant in Illinois with an annual production capacity of approximately 150,000 vehicles, which is actually far from meeting current order requirements.

　　In the financial report, Rivian announced that it has reached an agreement with Georgia to build the company’s second plant in the local area. With 7,500 jobs, the investment in the Georgia factory is about $5 billion.

　　Industry fights are becoming increasingly fierce

　　Although the electric vehicle market has huge room for development, at the same time, the fight between Tesla, Rivian and other new energy car companies and traditional car giants is becoming increasingly fierce.

　　Regarding the situation of "competition for hegemony", Warner told reporters that traditional automakers will launch a wave of new electric models in 2022, including Volvo , BMW , Mercedes-Benz , Citroen , Volkswagen, Audi , Hyundai, Porsche and Toyota , almost all of them These companies have outlined a grand blueprint for electrification in the next ten years.

　　This means that competition in the future will increase day by day. "As more electric car stocks launch their first models, coupled with traditional automakers catching up, this means that competition will intensify in 2022." Warner said.

　　Jessica Caldwell, an analyst at automotive research company Edmunds, warned that the valuations of some new energy car companies are "doubtful." “Tesla has made a lot of investors a fortune, and now everyone wants to participate in the next big event in the field of electric vehicles. But unfortunately, companies like Tesla do not often appear.”

　　This also means that Rivian will face various challenges in the future. Bank of America Securities analyst John Murphy predicts that Rivian's operating profit will not be able to recover until at least 2025.

　　In this regard, Musk earlier commented that there are already hundreds of automotive startups around the world, including electric vehicles and internal combustion engines, but Tesla is the only profitable US electric vehicle company in the past 100 years . "I hope they (Rivian) can achieve high production and break-even cash flow. This is the real test."

　　From another perspective, some institutions are still optimistic about Rivian under the blessing of Amazon. Dan Ives Wedbush analyst said, for Rivian, the Q3 is a shortage of supply, not demand problem, Wedbush concern is not just short-term delivery issues, thus giving Rivian outperforming the broader market rating, Rivian has the potential over the next decade Become one of the leaders in the electric vehicle industry.

　　Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter also gave Rivian an overweight rating. "Because of Rivian's small scale, the current production figures are meaningless, and the market's sell-off of Rivian is surprising. The capital expenditure of the Georgia factory is clearly lower than expected, which should be enough to offset the market's concerns about its recent production instability."

　　It should be noted that supply chain issues such as lack of cores are a predicament commonly faced by car companies. Warner said that the global chip shortage is one of the biggest challenges facing the automotive industry this year. Cars need a large number of chips to control various functions such as brakes and electric devices. The dependence of the virus is also deepening, and next year the new crown virus may continue to pose a threat to the industry.

　　Looking to the future, Warner told reporters that in 2022 there will be both opportunities and challenges in the electric vehicle market. Electric vehicle sales will continue to be hot in the coming year, but competition will obviously become more intense. Leading companies like Tesla should maintain a leading position. Intra-market competition may make electric car stocks that want to start and catch up with industry leaders more difficult next year, and they will also face more challenges from traditional automakers. Big threat.