How do the macro factors of the US dollar affect the direction of the crypto market?

There is one macro variable, and it alone affects more than 50% of cryptocurrency price fluctuations. What does it mean for the value of your coin wallet? The variable I'm referring to is the dollar.

I compare BTC price and cryptocurrency market cap to a basket of macro factors. The price of the US dollar (represented by the DXY index) has the most obvious correlation with cryptocurrencies.

54% of the time, year-on-year BTC price changes can be explained by DXY alone.

bear market

DXY goes up -> cryptocurrency goes down and vice versa.

2018, the arrival of the last cryptocurrency bear market, coincided with a major trend reversal in the U.S. dollar, and as the U.S. dollar began to fall in early 2019, BTC was resurrected from the dead. Which makes you wonder, is the cryptocurrency driven by the BTC halving as they would have you believe, or is it driven by the USD valuation cycle?

You say, the price of cryptocurrencies is in dollars. So, if the dollar rises, of course cryptocurrencies will fall. Or, in your opinion, cryptocurrencies are risk-seeking assets and the US dollar is a risk-averse asset. They should of course be negatively correlated. This doesn't seem to be a problem?

Indeed, there is also a negative correlation between DXY and commodities, as commodities are mostly traded in USD, and there is also a negative correlation between DXY and the stock market, as stocks are risk-oriented assets.

But DXY explains only 24% of gold price changes and 7% of S&P 500 changes — an order of magnitude more correlated with cryptocurrencies. Why?