Bitcoin leverage ratio hits a record high! Willy Woo: BTC moves towards $100,000 next year

Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuated violently today, breaking through $52,000 at 1:00 this morning, setting a new high since the 4th, but then it fell straight and fell below the $50,000 mark. As of the deadline, it was reported at US$49,773, a drop of 2.09% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin's leverage ratio hits a record high

Data from the blockchain data analysis company CryptoQuant shows that the estimated leverage ratio of Bitcoin on all exchanges has hit a record high, which increases the possibility that the market will adjust soon to offset all excessive leverage.

CryptoQuant wrote an article warning on the 27th: it looks like a standard accumulation model. Retail traders are often eliminated. The leverage ratio has hit a record high, and Binance is seeing a large amount of deposits. Looking back on June, we can see that a similar bull market trap may be forming.

"NewsBTC" reported that this indicator is used to estimate the average leverage used by Bitcoin investors on derivatives exchanges. The estimated leverage ratio is calculated by the amount of open interest/exchange reserves. With this indicator, It is possible to know whether investors are currently taking low or high risk.

When this indicator rises, it means that investors are using more leverage. The high level of this indicator means that the market is currently over-leveraged, which in turn leads to greater volatility in Bitcoin; on the other hand, the low level of this indicator, It means that there is not much leverage in the market.

In addition, according to yesterday’s report, Bitcoin will face the expiration of US$6.4 billion worth of options contracts on December 31. On Deribit, the world’s largest bitcoin options exchange alone, there will be US$5.7 billion worth of options contracts that will expire. , So it can be expected that Bitcoin will fluctuate sharply before the end of the year.

Willy Woo is optimistic about a new high next year

However, looking forward to the new year, Willy Woo, a well-known analyst in the cryptocurrency community, was optimistically predicting in an interview with the Podcast program What Bitcoin Did on the 27th that Bitcoin is preparing to reach a new all-time high next year, and emphasized that Bitcoin is from the current all-time high. A rise from US$69,000 to US$100,000 is nothing.

Willy Woo said: Of course, we have reached unprecedented heights. If we break the historical high level appropriately, we can surpass the Fibonacci sequence level... You know, let’s face it, $69,000 to $100,000 is nothing, for Bitcoin, it’s just A 50% increase, and Bitcoin can easily achieve it.

When asked specifically how high Bitcoin may hit its all-time high next year, Willy Woo mentioned the S2F model, which compares the newly entered market supply with the existing supply to quantify the scarcity and thereby Make predictions on currency prices.

Willy Woo believes that Bitcoin will fluctuate up and down, but in the long run, the average will remain at the level of 100,000 US dollars: I want to say that we are in it. By the end of next year, the price of the currency will be about 100,000 US dollars, regardless of whether we are rising. Still falling, Bitcoin may rise a lot and then fall back, but the median value is roughly around $100,000.

Bitcoin sovereign supply reaches a new high

On the other hand, it is worth noting that the latest weekly report issued by the on-chain data analysis company Glassnode on the 27th pointed out that the sovereign supply of Bitcoin, that is, the total amount of Bitcoin outside of exchange reserves, has reached a record high; among them, the long-term The holding ratio of holders to sovereign supply increased from 4.8% to 74.8% from the beginning of the year, while the holding ratio of short-term holders to sovereign supply decreased by 2.8% to 25.2%.

The blockchain research organization CryptoRank recently mentioned the same trend, referring to the continued decrease in the supply of bitcoins on exchanges. In December of this year, the supply of bitcoins on exchanges was only about 1.309 million, accounting for the total supply of bitcoins. The volume was 6.2%, setting a new monthly low this year.