Bitcoin Christmas $100,000 needs a miracle, long-term BTC holdings hit a new high

Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a sluggish performance recently. Today, it fell below US$47,000 again. The fear and greed index of the cryptocurrency market has not improved, and market sentiment is in a state of extreme fear. An anonymous analyst PlanB said frankly on Twitter on the 19th that his previous prediction that the price of Bitcoin will reach $100,000 this Christmas is unlikely to be realized unless a small miracle occurs.

According to Tradingview data, Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a sluggish performance recently and has continued to fluctuate for several days. As of the deadline, it was reported at US$46,621, a decrease of 0.04% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin prices are currently hovering near the 200-day moving average, and due to strong resistance from 50,000 to 55,000 US dollars, the upside seems to be limited. However, Bitcoin has also experienced depletion of down signals and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in an oversold state. Circumstances, so there may be a rebound in the short term.

Despite this, "Coindesk" believes that from the weekly chart, Bitcoin has failed to break through multiple attempts when it was close to the historical high of $69,000, indicating that the broader upward trend is weakening and the upward movement can be achieved. The loss is still worrying, and Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. Assuming that the buyer cannot keep Bitcoin at the current level of support, it may face the possibility of another 20% drop.

PlanB admits that the $100,000 forecast for Christmas is difficult to meet the target

At the same time, PlanB, an anonymous analyst known for the Bitcoin S2F model, said frankly on Twitter on the 19th that his previous prediction that the price of Bitcoin will reach $100,000 this Christmas is unlikely to be realized.

PlanB said on Twitter: Bitcoin wants to reach $100,000 on Christmas. It takes a miracle. If this does not happen, will I abandon the S2F model? No, I actually like to make predictions in the lower price range. In fact, I released the model in March 2019 when Bitcoin was in the lower range, below $4,000.

In June of this year, PlanB predicted on Twitter that, in the worst case scenario, the Bitcoin price will be greater than 47,000 U.S. dollars in August, more than 43,000 U.S. dollars in September, more than 63,000 U.S. dollars in October, and more than 98,000 U.S. dollars in November. , December was more than 135,000 U.S. dollars, because the forecasts in August, September, and October met the standard, it was a surprise to the outside world.

However, according to previous reports, Bitcoin's November monthly line finally closed at $56,950, making PlanB confess that it was inaccurate at the beginning of December. However, he still emphasized that the floor model was invalid and the S2F model was still valid. He firmly believed that Bitcoin will be at the end of this year. It reached 100,000 US dollars before.

On-chain data

However, it is worth noting that the latest data from the on-chain data analysis company Glassnode shows that the number of long-term held or lost bitcoins has reached 7.23 million,2361.286, a high in the past 11 months, accounting for approximately the total bitcoin supply. Of 34.45%.